The US total fertility rate fell to 1.62 births per woman in 2025, the lowest recorded level in American history, the CDC’s National Center
for Health Statistics reported in June 2026, continuing a decline that has accelerated since 2020.
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Key Developments
A total fertility rate below 2.1 indicates a population shrinking without immigration.
The US rate of 1.62 is now below Japan (1.20) in absolute terms but reflects a more recent and faster trajectory of decline than
Japan’s, which peaked in the 1970s. Read also: Ukraine Launches Record Drone Attack on Moscow Oil Refinery.
Background and Context
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Total births in the US fell to 3.66 million in 2025, down from 3.75 million in 2024 and the fifth consecutive year of declining births.
What Experts Are Saying
The peak was 4.32 million births in 2007, meaning births have fallen 15 percent over 18 years.
Survey data from Pew Research and the Brookings Institution consistently shows the same top reasons Americans give for having fewer children: cost of childcare,
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cost of housing, career and educational goals, and climate anxiety. See also: Trump Approval Rating 36% Record Low on Economy.
These factors are pronounced among millennials and Gen Z, who are now in their primary childbearing years.
Childcare costs have risen 26 percent since 2020 after adjusting for inflation.
Full-time infant childcare now costs an average of $16,800 per year nationally, exceeding average annual tuition at a 4-year public university in 25 states.
The birth rate decline is not uniform. Hispanic Americans have a fertility rate of 1.93, above the national average.
Non-Hispanic white and Asian American fertility rates have declined fastest, to 1.48 and 1.31 respectively.
A declining birth rate reduces the working-age population over time, which constrains economic growth, strains Social Security and Medicare funding, and reduces domestic consumer demand.
The Congressional Budget Office projects the worker-to-retiree ratio will fall from 2.8 today to 2.2 by 2040.
Several states including Texas, Kansas, and Montana have passed pro-natalist tax policies including child tax credit expansions and deductions for childcare costs.
The federal Child Tax Credit, currently $2,000 per child, has been the subject of congressional debate over expansion.
Immigration has partially offset declining birth rates. Net immigration to the US was 1.1 million in 2025 according to Census Bureau estimates, keeping overall population growth modestly positive.
The US total fertility rate was 1.62 births per woman in 2025, the lowest ever recorded. Total births were 3.66 million.
The birth rate has declined in 9 of the past 10 years and is now 23 percent below the 2.1 replacement-level fertility needed for a stable population without immigration.
Not immediately. The US population is still growing modestly because immigration adds more people than the birth rate deficit removes.
However, without continued immigration or a reversal in fertility trends, the US population would begin declining by approximately 2060 under current projections.
South Korea has the world’s lowest fertility rate at 0.72 in 2024, less than half the replacement level.
Japan (1.20), Spain (1.16), and Italy (1.22) are among the other countries with very low fertility rates.
The US rate of 1.62, while historically low domestically, remains higher than most wealthy nations in Europe and East Asia.
Sources: WHO – Health News | Reuters – Health | NPR – Health
Sources and Further Reading
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