NOAA declared an El Nino on June 11, 2026 after sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific climbed at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average for multiple consecutive months. The formation is notable not just because El Nino has arrived, but because multiple forecasting models are now showing a 63 percent chance of this event becoming very strong, potentially ranking among the largest El Nino events in the historical record stretching back to 1950.

The last comparably strong El Nino, the 1997 to 1998 event, caused an estimated $45 billion in damages globally, disrupted agricultural output across the tropics and subtropics, contributed to drought in Australia and Southeast Asia, and temporarily pushed global average temperatures to a then-record high. Climate scientists note that a 2026 El Nino of similar strength would occur against a warming baseline, potentially amplifying its effects.

What Is El Nino and Why Does It Matter

El Nino is a natural climate pattern characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The warming disrupts the normal atmospheric circulation patterns that distribute heat and moisture across the globe, shifting weather patterns in predictable but wide-ranging ways.

The pattern is part of a broader oscillation called ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). Its counterpart, La Nina, involves cooler-than-normal Pacific temperatures and has the opposite effect on many regional weather patterns. The world has been in a La Nina or neutral pattern for most of the last three years, making the 2026 El Nino transition particularly significant.

Where El Nino Will Hit Hardest

According to NPR, the regions facing the most significant El Nino impacts include:

Australia and Southeast Asia face elevated drought risk. The same atmospheric changes that warm the eastern Pacific cool the western Pacific, reducing moisture transport to Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and eastern Australia. Agricultural disruption and water scarcity are the primary concerns in these regions.

Southern Africa, particularly the southern African agricultural belt covering Zambia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa’s maize-producing regions, typically experiences below-normal rainfall during El Nino years. The 2015-16 El Nino produced the worst drought in southern Africa in decades, devastating harvests and triggering food emergency declarations.

The Amazon basin’s southern and eastern margins face drought conditions, which in combination with deforestation pressure can trigger extreme fire seasons similar to the 2019 Amazon fires.

The Upside: US Southwest Drought Relief

El Nino is not purely bad news. For parts of the United States, the pattern typically brings beneficial effects. The US Southwest and Southern Plains, which have experienced a prolonged multi-year drought, tend to receive above-normal precipitation during El Nino winters. A strong 2026 event could provide significant drought relief to California, Arizona, Nevada, and the Texas panhandle by late 2026 and into early 2027.

The US Gulf Coast and Southeast also tend to receive above-normal winter precipitation during El Nino events, which can recharge groundwater and reservoir levels.

Climate Change Interaction

The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre published analysis in June 2026 flagging a potentially historic El Nino event and noting the humanitarian dimension. A 2026 strong El Nino occurring on top of a climate system that is already running approximately 1.3 degrees Celsius warmer than preindustrial levels will produce heat extremes in affected regions that exceed historical El Nino impacts.

According to Weather West, the probability of a strong-to-historic event now stands at approximately 63 percent based on model consensus, with the event likely to peak between December 2026 and February 2027. Global average temperatures may temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels during the peak.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did El Nino form in 2026?

Yes. NOAA officially declared an El Nino on June 11, 2026 after sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific exceeded the 0.5 degree Celsius above-average threshold. Multiple climate models indicate a 63 percent chance of this becoming a very strong El Nino, potentially ranking among the largest in the historical record going back to 1950.

How will El Nino 2026 affect the United States?

The US Southwest and Southern Plains are likely to receive beneficial above-normal precipitation, potentially providing relief from a prolonged multi-year drought. The Gulf Coast and Southeast will likely see above-normal winter rainfall. However, El Nino typically increases wind shear in the Atlantic, which can suppress hurricane formation in late summer and fall. The full pattern will develop through late 2026 and into 2027.

When will El Nino 2026 peak?

Based on current model consensus, the 2026 El Nino is expected to peak between December 2026 and February 2027, persisting into spring 2027. This is consistent with typical El Nino seasonality: events tend to strengthen through the second half of the year and peak during boreal winter before weakening in spring.