Vietnam is set to record GDP growth of 7.2 percent in 2026 according to the Asian Development Bank, making it the fastest-growing economy in Southeast Asia and one of the fastest-growing among all developing economies globally. The ADB projection reflects Vietnam’s continued strong performance as a manufacturing export hub and beneficiary of supply chain diversification as global companies reduce dependence on Chinese manufacturing. Vietnam’s FDI inflows in 2025 reached $38 billion with South Korea, Singapore, Japan, and increasingly the United States among the largest source countries. The manufacturing capacity those inflows create continues to drive export growth, making Vietnam one of the most trade-intensive economies relative to GDP in all of Asia.

Vietnam’s growth performance in 2026 stands in contrast to the regional average. The ADB projects Indonesia at 5.2 percent, Malaysia at 4.6 percent, Thailand at 3.1 percent, and the Philippines at 5.8 percent – each trailing Vietnam by a significant margin. Vietnam’s ability to sustain 7 percent-plus growth despite Iran war trade disruptions reflects the strength of its manufacturing export model. Vietnam is party to the CPTPP, the EU-Vietnam FTA, RCEP, and a network of bilateral FTAs that give its manufactured exports preferential access to virtually every major consumer market in the world. The combination of competitive labor costs, improving infrastructure, and unparalleled market access through trade agreements has made Vietnam the most attractive manufacturing FDI destination in Southeast Asia for several years. The Shangri-La Dialogue affirmed Vietnam’s continued commitment to the rules-based international economic order that underpins its trade-led growth model, even as Hanoi carefully manages its relationship with China – its largest single trading partner.